Who Really Wins (and Loses) from the MBG Tax Policy? The Answer Might Surprise You!

In recent months, the buzz around Indonesia’s Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program has grown louder. Promising free nutritious meals—especially for school children—the policy has captured public imagination. On the surface, it feels like a win-win solution: better nutrition, stronger future generations, and a government that seems to care deeply about its people.

But as with any large-scale policy funded by public money, one uncomfortable question lingers beneath the excitement:

Who is actually benefiting the most—and who is quietly paying the price?

Let’s unpack this together, in a grounded and human way.

The Promise: A Healthier Generation

At its core, the MBG program is rooted in a noble vision. Malnutrition and stunting have long been serious issues in Indonesia. For millions of families, especially those in lower-income brackets, providing consistent nutritious meals isn’t always easy.

From this perspective, the biggest winners seem obvious:

1. Children from Low-Income Families

For these families, MBG is more than just a policy—it’s relief. It reduces the daily burden of food costs while ensuring children receive proper nutrition.

It’s not just about full stomachs. It’s about:

Better focus in school

Improved physical growth

A stronger foundation for the future

For them, this program is a lifeline.

The Silent Winners: Businesses Behind the Scenes

While the public narrative focuses on children and families, there’s another group that stands to benefit significantly:

2. Food Suppliers and Catering Companies

Large-scale meal programs require massive supply chains. From rice and vegetables to logistics and packaging, someone has to provide it all.

This creates opportunities for:

Local food producers

Catering businesses

Logistics companies

In theory, this can boost the local economy. But here’s where things get interesting.

If contracts are concentrated among a few large players, smaller businesses may struggle to compete. The economic benefits might not be as evenly distributed as people expect.

So while the sector grows, not everyone in it wins equally.

The Government’s Position: Investment or Gamble?

From the government’s standpoint, MBG is framed as a long-term investment. The idea is simple:

> Spend now, benefit later.

Healthier children today could mean:

Lower healthcare costs in the future

A more productive workforce

Stronger economic growth

But this strategy comes with a trade-off.

3. Fiscal Pressure on the State Budget

Funding a nationwide program like MBG requires enormous resources—potentially reaching hundreds of trillions of rupiah over time.

That money has to come from somewhere.

And this is where the conversation becomes more personal.

The Ones Who Feel It: Taxpayers

Behind every government program lies one key pillar: tax revenue.

Which brings us to the group that may not feel like winners at all:

4. Middle-Class Taxpayers

If you’re part of the working population—earning a steady income, paying taxes regularly—you are likely contributing to programs like MBG.

Directly or indirectly, this can show up as:

Increased tax pressure

Expanded tax collection efforts

Potential adjustments to VAT (PPN) or other levies

For many, it raises a difficult question:

> “Am I paying more, but not receiving direct benefits?”

This is where frustration can grow, especially if transparency and communication from policymakers are lacking.

Small Businesses: Caught in the Middle

Another group navigating uncertainty is small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

5. Local Small Businesses

On one hand, MBG could open doors for them to become suppliers. On the other hand, increased taxes or operational costs could squeeze their margins.

They face a double-edged situation:

Opportunity for growth

Risk of higher financial burden

Whether they end up as winners or losers depends heavily on how inclusive the system is.

The Hidden Risk: Economic Ripple Effects

Policies of this scale don’t operate in isolation. They create ripple effects across the economy.

If funding relies heavily on increased taxes or budget reallocation, potential consequences include:

Reduced consumer spending

Higher prices of goods (if VAT rises)

Slower growth in certain sectors

These effects might not be immediate—but over time, they shape how people feel about the policy.

So… Who Really Wins?

Let’s be honest:
There is no single winner or loser.

Instead, MBG creates layers of impact:

Clear Winners:

Children in need

Certain suppliers and contractors

Public health (in the long run)

Potential Winners (Conditional):

SMEs (depending on access and policy fairness)

Local economies (if distribution is inclusive)

Those Who May Feel the Burden:

Middle-class taxpayers

Consumers facing potential price increases

Small businesses under tax pressure

The Real Question Isn’t “Who Wins?”

The deeper question we should be asking is:

> Is the system fair, transparent, and sustainable?

Because even a well-intentioned policy can feel unfair if:

People don’t understand where the money goes

The burden isn’t shared proportionally

Benefits aren’t distributed evenly

A Human Perspective: Between Empathy and Reality

It’s easy to support a program that feeds children. In fact, it’s almost impossible not to.

But it’s also valid for working individuals to ask:

“Why does it feel like I’m paying more?”

“Is this being managed efficiently?”

“Who is making sure this stays fair?”

Both perspectives can coexist.

And that’s what makes this conversation important—not divisive.

Final Thoughts: A Policy That Reflects Us

MBG isn’t just about food. It’s about priorities.

It reflects how a nation chooses to:

Care for its vulnerable

Allocate its resources

Balance compassion with economic reality

In the end, whether you feel like a winner or a loser often depends on where you stand.

But one thing is certain:

The success of this policy won’t be measured by how much money is spent—
but by how fairly its impact is felt.

And that’s something worth watching closely.